It’s easy to think of sea level rise as a straightforward issue: melting ice from glaciers and polar ice caps adds water to the oceans, while warmer temperatures cause water to expand. But as straightforward as it may seem, there’s a hidden complexity that makes the reality of sea level rise far worse than expected—especially in the Mediterranean. Recent studies have revealed that in certain areas, the seas are rising almost three times faster than previously thought, and the consequences could be dire.
The Hidden Factor: Land Subsidence
Sea level rise is usually measured through tide gauges, which track fluctuations in sea levels at specific locations, and satellite radar altimetry, which gives us a more global perspective. However, scientists have recently recognized that a third factor is accelerating the rise: land subsidence. This phenomenon, which is the sinking of the earth’s surface, is often caused by human activities, such as over-extraction of groundwater. This sinking, combined with the rising sea levels, is intensifying the threat to coastal regions.
The Mediterranean: A Region Under Pressure
In a new study led by three researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy, and the Radboud University in the Netherlands, the scientists incorporated satellite measurements to accurately gauge how quickly the land is sinking in Mediterranean coastal areas. The results were chilling: in certain parts of the Mediterranean, sea levels are rising almost three times faster than in stable areas.
Dr. Antonio Vecchio, the lead author from Radboud University, explained the significance of this finding: “Our analysis shows that because of land subsidence, the rate at which sea levels are rising in some Mediterranean areas is nearly three times faster than in more stable regions.”
This rapid rise threatens over 38,500 square kilometers of coastline, which could soon be submerged, with Mediterranean coastlines facing some of the most extreme and rapid effects of climate change. The rising waters will not only affect the coastal communities but also damage marine ecosystems that are vital to the region’s biodiversity.
The Geology Behind It: The Mediterranean’s Tectonic Struggles
So, what’s causing this accelerated subsidence in the Mediterranean? The region is the result of the ongoing collision between the African and Eurasian tectonic plates, a process that has been active since the late Cretaceous period, more than 66 million years ago. The plates continue to push against each other, causing the earth’s crust to deform, resulting in both continuous and episodic movements that can trigger earthquakes, especially near the coastlines.
This ongoing geological activity contributes to the sinking of the land, which, when combined with rising sea levels, creates a vicious cycle: the ground sinks, and the sea climbs higher. This dynamic is particularly worrying for Mediterranean countries already dealing with other pressures such as coastal erosion and increasing human development along the coast.
The Mediterranean’s Vulnerability: Areas at Risk
According to the study, France, Egypt, and Italy are the most vulnerable Mediterranean countries, with France specifically facing the threat of coastal flooding in areas such as the Rhône Delta. These low-lying coastal zones are especially susceptible to flooding due to their geography, and they also face additional risks from subsidence, coastal erosion, and increasing human pressure. These combined factors make them more vulnerable to flooding in the coming decades (especially between 2050 and 2150).
As the researchers point out, many of these areas, including famous sites like Venice, Istanbul, and Alexandria, are already facing an uphill battle with rising water levels. The loss of these historic cities, as well as the impact on local populations, could be devastating if action isn’t taken soon.
Is the Danger Being Underestimated?
The study also highlights a concerning reality: many people living along the Mediterranean coast are still unaware of the land subsidence and the associated risks of rising sea levels. This lack of awareness could result in a lack of preparation for the upcoming changes, particularly for local infrastructure, cultural heritage sites, and human livelihoods. The need for better public awareness and adaptation strategies has never been more urgent.
The Mediterranean region, rich in cultural history and diverse ecosystems, is in a race against time. The impact of climate change and the sinking land could have far-reaching consequences that need immediate attention. It’s a reminder that in the fight against climate change, we cannot simply focus on one factor; it’s the interaction of various elements—like subsidence, sea level rise, and human activity—that will shape the future of these coastal areas.
In the face of these escalating risks, the need for sustainable solutions and global cooperation has never been more pressing. It’s up to both governments and individuals to stay informed and work together to protect these vulnerable regions before it’s too late.
